2007. Paper
2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)
2007. Brazilian society underwent two cycles in the twentieth century, followed, with a gap, by the respective political coalition. Between the beginning of the century and 1964, the first society cycle, "Nação e Desenvolvimento", corresponded at state level by the National-Developmentalist political pact (1930-1984). The second , "Democracia e Justiça Social", begins in the late 1960s and gets exhausted in middle 2000s. It correspond to two political coalitions: first, between 1977 and 1987, the 1977 Popular-Democratic Pact, that achieves democratic transition and political power in 1985 but collapses two years later it follows a political vacuum and, from 1991 to the present, we have the Liberal-Dependent Pact precariously combined with the democratic and social ideas - and no real economic development. (Section of the book Macroeconomia da Estagnação)
2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first attempt to build new-developmental macroeconomics. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação). Available in bookstores
2008. With Paulo Gala. An overvalued currency is a central cause of insufficiency of demand. The growth with foreign savings policy appreciates local currencies, increases domestic consumption, and causes domestic saving to be replaced by foreign savings. (Paper Journal of Post Keynesian Economics).
2007. This paper summarizes my model of public management reform, and shows that, depending on the form it is applied, it may be progressive instead of neo-liberal. Portuguese version available.(Paper: International Public Management Review). Spanish version(Paper: Revista del CLAD Reforma y Democracia).
2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper to be published in book)
2006. Between 1994 and 1999, foreign savings substitute domestic ones instead of increasing investment (72,5%) The inverse happened when the country experienced current account surplus (113,9%). (Paper, just in this site) Portuguese version available.
2006. Survey of Ugo Paganos "Positional goods and asymmetric development". (Note: Econômica).
2006. The rate of substitution of foreign for domestic savings was high in Brazil in the period 1994-99, as the inverse rate was also high in the 2000-05 period. The critique of growth with foreign savings applied to Brazil. (Unpublished paper)
2006. Paper comparing three growth strategies old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. An improved version available with the title "Macroeconomics of stagnation and new developmentalism".(Paper Economie Appliquée).
2006. The exchange rate determines not only exports and imports, but also real wages, consumption and the savings rate. (Preface to book edited by Mathias Vernengo)
2005. A summing up of my views on public management reform, distinguishing a strucutural and a managerial aspect. (Paper to be published in edited book)
2005. Public-private partnerships are becoming increasingly common. (Report as the general reporteur of the IIAS Berlin Conference)
2005. A critique of the two dependency theories (associated and super-exploration) which intended to be an alternative to ISEBs and ECLACs view of Latin American development. Only a third version - national-dependent theory - is consistent with the nation building and growth. Portuguese and Spanish versions available.(Paper)
2005. Note to the Fourth Annual Meeting of the Committee of Experts on Public Administration, of the Economic and Social Council (Ecosoc), of the United Nations. New York, April 6, 2005.
2004. The critique of the growth cum foreign savings strategy adopted in the Cardoso administration. Foreign finance does not cause growth. Spanish version available. (Paper: International Journal of Political Economy)*
2004. The rise of the professional middle class, knowledge as the new strategic factor of production, and the implications for democracy. The correspondent concept of capital.Portuguese version available.(Paper in book honoring J. K. Galbraith).
2004. With Carmen Varela. Latin Americas quasi-stagnation in the 1990s can be explained principally by the growth cum foreign savings strategy. (Paper: Journal of Post Keynesian Economics)
2002. With Yoshiaki Nakano. Developing countries' poor performance in the 1990s is related to the Washington strategy of growth with foreign savings. Portuguese version available.(Paper presented to International Post Keynesian Workshop).