ND - ECONOMICS - ALL TEXTS

2010. With José Luís Oreiro. Populist Keynesians are for chronic public deficits. Keynes only supported budget deficits in recession moments, and to finance investment, not current expenditures. (Article: La Onda digital).

2009. Na primeira parte do livro com esse título discuto a estratégia novo desenvolvimentista na segunda, procuro desenvolver uma macroeconomia estruturalista do desenvolvimento apropriada para nosso tempo. Folha de S.Paulo, 02.11.2009

2009. Why some middle income countries catch up while others do not. Behind new developmentalism this book drafts a structuralist development macroeconomics in which the exchange rate plays a strategic role. (Book: Elsevier).Disponível nas livrarias

2008. With Lauro Gonzales e Cláudio Lucinda. Differently of what says conventional economic analysis, the cause of the 1990s financial crises in Mexico, Asia, Brazil and Argentina was not primarily fiscal, but the decision of governments to grow with foreign savings, i.e., with current account deficits. (Paper in Nova Economia).

2008. In developing countries there is the tendency to the overvaluation of the exchange rate. If countries do not neutralize it, they will experiment slow growth, and catching up will not happen. (Chapter 4 of book to be published, Globalization and Competition). Spanish version and Portuguese version available.

2009. The idea that developing countries need foreign capitals to grow is false. By apreciating the exchange rate, capitals turn into consumption, not in investment. (Interview of Natalia Aruguete in Página 12)

2008. A country suffering from the Dutch disease has two "equilibrium" exchange rates: the "current equilibrium" that is inconsistent with economic growth, and the"industrial equilibrium" that will be achieved if the country is able to neutralize the disease. (Paper in edited book) English version published in Brazilian Journal of Political Economy)

2008. Lula's new industrial policy is welcomed, but it dos not replace a non-competitive exchange rate.(Article: Folha de S.Paulo)

2007. With Paulo Gala In João Sicsú e Carlos Vidotto, orgs. (2008) Economia do Desenvolvimento. Teoria e Políticas Keynesianas. Rio de Janeiro: Campus: 79-96.

2007. Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washington conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. English, Spanish, and Portuguese versions available. (Paper: Passages de Paris).

2007.Paper comparing three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washingtons conventional orthodoxy - actually a form of neutralizing the catching up of medium income countries. Slightly improved version in relation to "New developmentalism and conventional orthodoxy". (Paper in the book Keynes for the Twentieth Century)

2007. Response to the Carta do IBRE of the previous month cricizing my proposal of using a variable export tax do neutralize the Dutch disease (Conjuntura Econômica, October)

2007. Trade cannot be de-linked from finance because the exchange rate represents a major intersection between the two field. Yet, the exchange rate is forgotten in international trade and in economic growth courses, and in trade negotiations at WTO. Countries that have reserve currencies abhor taking on the exchange rate (Intervention at UNCTAD seminar)

2009. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system; a first attempt to build new-developmental macroeconomics. (This book is an atualized version of Macroeconomia da Estagnação). Available in bookstores

2007. An encompassing analysis of the Brazilian macroeconomic system. A first presentation of the developmental macroeconomics. Why Brazil failed to grow fast after the Real Plan. (Book: Editora 34) Out of print; availble in this site. English version available: Developing Brazil (2009).

2007. This is a reduced version of a "Novo desenvolvimentismo e ortodoxia convencional". It compares three growth strategies: old or national-developmentalism, new developmentalism, and Washington,s conventional orthodoxy. Portuguese version available. (Paper: Nueva Sociedad)

2008. With Paulo Gala. An overvalued currency is a central cause of insufficiency of demand. The growth with foreign savings policy appreciates local currencies, increases domestic consumption, and causes domestic saving to be replaced by foreign savings. (Paper Journal of Post Keynesian Economics).

2007. With Paulo Gala. A formalization of the critique of the strategy of growth with foreign savings: the consequent exchange rate appreciation increases artificially wages and causes the substitution of domestic with foreign savings. English version available.(Paper: Revista de Economia Política)